| strikes | expiry | dte | credit | dist% | PT | ct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7630P/7615P | 2026-08-31 | 5 | 4.35 | 1.31% | — (PT-OFF) | 3 |
| strikes | expiry | dte | credit | dist% | PT | ct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7645P/7630P | 2026-08-28 | 2 | 4.9 | 1.11% | — (PT-OFF) | 3 |
| symbol | strikes | expiry | credit | ct | unreal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX_7640P_7625P_2026-08-28 | 7640P/7625P | 2026-08-28 | 5.4 | 3 | — |
| SPX_7640P_7625P_2026-08-28 | 7640P/7625P | 2026-08-28 | 5.7 | 3 | — |
| SPX_7630P_7615P_2026-08-31 | 7630P/7615P | 2026-08-31 | 4.35 | 3 | — |
| SPX_7645P_7630P_2026-08-28 | 7645P/7630P | 2026-08-28 | 4.9 | 3 | — |
| exit date | symbol | tag | credit | exit | P&L | hold(d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | SPX_7660P_7645P_2026-08-24 | EXPIRY | 4.7 | 1.8211 | $1,714.72 | 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | SPX_7640P_7625P_2026-08-25 | EXPIRY | 4.05 | 3.8 | $62.36 | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | SPX_7760P_7745P_2026-08-20 | EXPIRY | 4.8 | — | $-4,088.42 | 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | SPX_7755P_7740P_2026-08-17 | EXPIRY | 4.9 | — | $-2,024.42 | 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | SPX_7790P_7775P_2026-08-17 | EXPIRY | 4.8376 | — | $-4,073.42 | 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | SPX_7735P_7720P_2026-08-14 | EXPIRY | 4.8251 | — | $1,921.56 | 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | SPX_7745P_7730P_2026-08-14 | EXPIRY | 5.35 | — | $2,131.58 | 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | SPX_7735P_7720P_2026-08-13 | EXPIRY | 5.2 | — | $2,071.58 | 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | SPX_7705P_7690P_2026-08-10 | EXPIRY | 4.9 | — | $1,803.16 | 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | SPX_7725P_7710P_2026-08-10 | EXPIRY | 5.15 | — | $1,703.16 | 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | SPX_7765P_7750P_2026-08-07 | EXPIRY | 5.5 | — | $-752.42 | 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | SPX_7625P_7610P_2026-08-07 | EXPIRY | 4.9 | 1.5 | $1,360.00 | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | SPX_7355P_7340P_2026-07-31 | EXPIRY | 4.0 | 0.4 | $1,080.00 | 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | SPX_7415P_7400P_2026-08-03 | EXPIRY | 3.8 | 2.75 | $315.00 | 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | SPX_7345P_7330P_2026-08-04 | EXPIRY | 3.9167 | 0.6 | $995.00 | 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | SPX_7375P_7360P_2026-07-31 | EXPIRY | 4.35 | 0.6 | $750.00 | 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | SPX_7350P_7335P_2026-07-30 · MANUAL | DEBUG_TERMINATED | 4.55 | 0.15 | $1,320.00 | 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | SPX_7430P_7415P_2026-07-28 | EXPIRY | 3.9 | 0.82 | $616.00 | 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | SPX_7500P_7485P_2026-07-27 | EXPIRY | 3.3 | 15.0 | $-1,170.00 | 14 |
| 2026-07-21 | SPX_7485P_7470P_2026-07-21 | EXPIRY | 3.7 | — | $370.00 | 7 |
| 2026-07-20 | SPX_7520P_7505P_2026-07-20 | PT_FILL | 3.75 | 15.0 | $-1,125.00 | 7 |
| 2026-07-06 | SPX_7410P_7380P_2026-07-07 | PT_FILL | 6.875 | 1.35 | $1,096.59 | 5 |
| 2026-07-01 | SPX_7330P_7300P_2026-07-10 | PT_FILL | 8.25 | 2.5 | $1,145.09 | 2 |
| 2026-06-30 | SPX_7480P_7450P_2026-06-30 | PT_FILL | 7.55 | 3.0 | $452.14 | 14 |
| 2026-06-30 | SPX_7440P_7410P_2026-06-30 | PT_FILL | 7.35 | 2.95 | $437.14 | 13 |
| 2026-06-30 | SPX_7305P_7275P_2026-07-07 | PT_FILL | 8.55 | 3.4 | $1,025.09 | 6 |
| 2026-06-30 | SPX_7300P_7270P_2026-07-07 | PT_FILL | 7.55 | 3.0 | $905.09 | 5 |
| 2026-06-30 | SPX_7225P_7195P_2026-07-08 | PT_FILL | 7.65 | 2.25 | $1,075.09 | 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | SPX_7235P_7205P_2026-06-23 | PT_FILL | 7.4 | 1.0 | $637.14 | 6 |
| 2026-06-12 | SPX_7190P_7160P_2026-06-23 | PT_FILL | 8.15 | 3.2 | $492.14 | 1 |
| 2026-06-09 | SPX_7475P_7445P_2026-06-16 | DEBUG_TERMINATED | 7.5 | 14.8 | $-732.86 | 5 |
| 2026-06-09 | SPX_7380P_7350P_2026-06-23 | SL | 7.75 | 15.1 | $-737.86 | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | SPX_7345P_7315P_2026-06-22 | DEBUG_TERMINATED | 7.650000000000002 | 7.75 | $-12.86 | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | RUT_2895P_2885P_2026-06-09 | SL | 3.44 | 9.79 | $-637.86 | 9 |
| 2026-06-05 | RUT_2890P_2880P_2026-06-16 | SL | 3.55 | 4.44 | $-91.86 | 3 |
| 2026-06-05 | SPX_7480P_7450P_2026-06-17 | DEBUG_TERMINATED | 7.85 | 9.55 | $-172.86 | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | RUT_2880P_2870P_2026-06-17 | SL | 3.75 | 4.59 | $-86.86 | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | RUT_2745P_2735P_2026-06-02 | DEBUG_TERMINATED | 3.01 | 2.35 | $63.28 | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | RUT_2715P_2705P_2026-06-02 | DEBUG_TERMINATED | 3.0 | 3.535 | $-55.56 | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | RUT_2710P_2700P_2026-06-02 | DEBUG_TERMINATED | 3.1999999999999993 | 3.465 | $1.44 | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | RUT_2715P_2705P_2026-06-02 | DEBUG_TERMINATED | 3.0 | 3.535 | $3.44 | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | RUT_2710P_2700P_2026-06-02 | DEBUG_TERMINATED | 3.1999999999999993 | 3.465 | $-3.56 | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | RUT_2735P_2725P_2026-06-02 | DEBUG_TERMINATED | 3.3999999999999986 | 3.47 | $-6.06 | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | RUT_2730P_2720P_2026-06-02 | DEBUG_TERMINATED | 3.3999999999999986 | 3.35 | $2.94 | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | SPX · MANUAL | OPERATIONAL_CLOSE | 7.8 | 3.9 | $390.00 | 3 |
| metric | backtest t12 | live (strategy-only) | variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| win rate | 72.1% | 69.7% | −2.4% |
| expectancy /trade | $129 | $284 | +$155 |
| ★ profit factor | 1.52 | 1.63 | +0.11 |
| ★ income/DD | 2.08 | 0.92 | −1.16 |
| max DD | $3,790 | $10,186 | +$6,396 |
| avg win | $521 | $1,050 | +$529 |
| avg loss | $-886 | $-1,479 | −$593 |
| ★ return-on-margin /trade | 8.58% | 1.62% | −6.96% |
| avg days-in-trade (= realized tenor at PT-OFF) | 3.1 | 4.7 | +1.6 |
| breach-complement (survive %) | 70.5% | n/a (not on harness) | n/a (not on harness) |
| avg credit /spread | $536 | n/a (not on harness) | n/a (not on harness) |
| ★ Sortino | n/a (not on harness) | 1.59 | n/a (not on harness) |
| Calmar | n/a (not on harness) | 0.92 | n/a (not on harness) |
| Sterling | n/a (not on harness) | 5.45 | n/a (not on harness) |
| Sharpe | n/a (not on harness) | 1.10 | n/a (not on harness) |
| metric | all-time | strategy-only |
|---|---|---|
| ★ income/DD (realized/maxDD) | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| ★ return-on-margin /trade | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| ★ Sortino | 1.68 | 1.59 |
| Calmar | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Sterling | 6.62 | 5.45 |
| ★ profit factor | 1.64 | 1.63 |
| ★ expectancy /trade | $226 | $284 |
| win rate | 64.4% | 69.7% |
| avg win / avg loss | $895 / $-986 | $1,050 / $-1,479 |
| max DD | $10,186 | $10,186 |
| Sharpe (secondary — understates prem-selling) | 1.17 | 1.10 |
| avg days-in-trade | 3.8 | 4.7 |
| worst / best trade | $-4,088 / $2,132 | $-4,088 / $2,132 |
| id | date | DTE | live K | harness K | δ-sel Δ | live credit | harness natbid | fill−natbid | live P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 871 | 2026-08-04 | 3 | 7625.0 | 7615.0 | +10 | 490 | 430 | +60 | +1,360 |
| 876 | 2026-08-05 | 2 | 7765.0 | 7755.0 | +10 | 550 | 540 | +10 | -752 |
| 878 | 2026-08-06 | 4 | 7705.0 | 7705.0 | +0 | 490 | 560 | -70 | +1,803 |
| 884 | 2026-08-07 | 3 | 7725.0 | 7720.0 | +5 | 515 | 520 | -5 | +1,703 |
| 898 | 2026-08-10 | 3 | 7735.0 | 7740.0 | -5 | 520 | 580 | -60 | +2,072 |
| 899 | 2026-08-11 | 3 | 7735.0 | 7745.0 | -10 | 483 | 570 | -87 | +1,922 |
| 901 | 2026-08-12 | 2 | 7745.0 | 7745.0 | +0 | 535 | 570 | -35 | +2,132 |
| 902 | 2026-08-13 | 4 | 7755.0 | 7755.0 | +0 | 490 | 500 | -10 | -2,024 |
| 904 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | 7790.0 | 7795.0 | -5 | 484 | 560 | -76 | -4,073 |
| 905 | 2026-08-17 | 3 | 7760.0 | 7775.0 | -15 | 480 | 600 | -120 | -4,088 |
| 958 | 2026-08-21 | 3 | 7660.0 | 7655.0 | +5 | 470 | 480 | -10 | +1,715 |
| metric | t6 | t12 | anchor | p10 | q1 | med | q3 | p90 | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| annNet | 12140 | 7877 | 9281 | 4981.78 | 7978.31 | 10249.53 | 17227.3 | 22102.75 | WATCH |
| wr | 73.5 | 72.1 | 70.3 | 64.95 | 68.57 | 72.37 | 76.47 | 78.79 | TRACKING |
| breach | 26.5 | 29.5 | 32.1 | 24.05 | 25.88 | 30.43 | 34.29 | 37.11 | TRACKING |
| avgCred | 525 | 536 | 558 | 543.95 | 545.13 | 551.49 | 560.93 | 571.55 | DEVIATING |
| admission | 46.6 | 44.9 | 52.7 | 44.52 | 46.26 | 49.32 | 52.87 | 66.67 | WATCH |
| year | n | median max-natbid | p40 | p60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 81 | $590 | $550 | $600 |
| 2023 | 155 | $500 | $470 | $540 |
| 2024 | 165 | $470 | $450 | $510 |
| 2025 | 152 | $470 | $430 | $500 |
| 2026 | 85 | $470 | $440 | $500 |
| live n | expected | ±1σ | ±2σ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | +788 | [-956, +2,532] | [-2,700, +4,276] | |
| 11 | +1,238 | [-948, +3,424] | [-3,134, +5,611] | ← current |
| 24 | +2,701 | [-528, +5,931] | [-3,757, +9,160] | |
| 30 | +3,377 | [-234, +6,987] | [-3,844, +10,598] | |
| 50 | +5,628 | [+967, +10,289] | [-3,694, +14,950] | |
| 100 | +11,256 | [+4,665, +17,848] | [-1,927, +24,440] | |
| 150 | +16,884 | [+8,811, +24,957] | [+738, +33,031] | ← ramp gate |
| 200 | +22,512 | [+13,190, +31,834] | [+3,868, +41,156] | ← ramp gate |
| date | VIX | band | throttle | actual N | hyp N | ΔN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | 14.54 | LOW | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | 15.21 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | 15.45 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | 15.85 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | 15.13 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 15.13 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | 15.13 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | 16.01 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | 14.89 | LOW | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | 15.84 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | 15.19 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | 14.25 | LOW | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 14.25 | LOW | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | 14.25 | LOW | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | 14.64 | LOW | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | 14.55 | LOW | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | 15.28 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | 15.46 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | 14.9 | LOW | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 14.9 | LOW | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | 14.9 | LOW | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | 15.15 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | 15.81 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | 16.5 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | 15.86 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | 15.99 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 15.99 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | 15.99 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | 17.09 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | 20.66 | ELEVATED | 0.8 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | 18.21 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | 18.67 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | 18.58 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 18.58 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | 18.58 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | 18.7 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | 16.64 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | 17.05 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | 18.65 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | 18.77 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 18.77 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | 18.77 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | 16.73 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | 15.67 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | 16.5 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | 17.16 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | 15.03 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 15.03 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | 15.03 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | 15.84 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | 16.9 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | 16.13 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | 15.57 | NORMAL | 1.0 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | 16.02 | NORMAL | None | 5 | 5 | None |
| date | id | symbol | fill | meas natbid | slip | dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 963 | SPX_7645P_7630P_2026-08-28 | $490 | $490 | $+0 | favorable |
| 2026-08-26 | 962 | SPX_7630P_7615P_2026-08-31 | $435 | $390 | $+45 | favorable |
| 2026-08-24 | 961 | SPX_7640P_7625P_2026-08-28 | $570 | — | — | pre-natbid-regime (no measurement) |
| 2026-08-24 | 960 | SPX_7640P_7625P_2026-08-28 | $540 | — | — | pre-natbid-regime (no measurement) |
| 2026-08-24 | 959 | SPX_7640P_7625P_2026-08-25 | $405 | — | — | pre-natbid-regime (no measurement) |
| 2026-08-21 | 958 | SPX_7660P_7645P_2026-08-24 | $470 | $480 | $-10 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-21 | 957 | SPX_7660P_7645P_2026-08-24 | $475 | $480 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-21 | 956 | SPX_7660P_7645P_2026-08-24 | $475 | $480 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-21 | 955 | SPX_7660P_7645P_2026-08-24 | $475 | $480 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-19 | 954 | SPX_7705P_7690P_2026-08-21 | $635 | $640 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-19 | 953 | SPX_7705P_7690P_2026-08-21 | $635 | $640 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-19 | 952 | SPX_7705P_7690P_2026-08-21 | $635 | $640 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-19 | 951 | SPX_7705P_7690P_2026-08-21 | $635 | $640 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-19 | 950 | SPX_7705P_7690P_2026-08-21 | $635 | $640 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-19 | 949 | SPX_7705P_7690P_2026-08-21 | $635 | $640 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-19 | 948 | SPX_7705P_7690P_2026-08-21 | $635 | $640 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-19 | 947 | SPX_7705P_7690P_2026-08-21 | $635 | $640 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-19 | 946 | SPX_7705P_7690P_2026-08-21 | $635 | $640 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-19 | 945 | SPX_7705P_7690P_2026-08-21 | $635 | $640 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| 2026-08-19 | 944 | SPX_7705P_7690P_2026-08-21 | $635 | $640 | $-5 | unfavorable |
| date | band | fills | pc$ | banded$ | N10$ | cumB$ | cumN10$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | YELLOW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| month | actual | target | vs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | $396 | $20,000 | below |
| 2026-06 | $2,551 | $20,000 | below |
| 2026-07 | $5,393 | $20,000 | below |
| 2026-08 | $1,829 | $20,000 | below |